Cameco Corp

Cameco is the world's largest publicly traded uranium company, mining U3O8 from tier-one Canadian and Kazakh assets (McArthur River, Cigar Lake, JV Inkai) and processing nuclear fuel; also owns ~40% of Westinghouse Electric (nuclear reactor services / AP1000 reactors).

Cameco mines and mills uranium at tier-one assets in Saskatchewan and Kazakhstan, sells uranium and fuel services, and owns strategic stakes in Westinghouse (49%) and Global Laser Enrichment (commercial lead; option to attain majority ownership up to 75%). It is primarily a nuclear fuel-supply company today, not a direct HALEU-enrichment operator.

FY2025 revenue C$3.482B (+11% YoY), gross profit C$970M (27.9% GM), operating income C$618.1M (17.8% OM), net earnings attributable to equity holders C$590M, cash from operations C$1.408B, cash & short-term investments C$1.2B, total debt C$1.0B. Q1 2026 revenue C$845M (+7% YoY), gross profit C$302M (35.7% GM), net earnings C$131M (+87% YoY), adjusted EBITDA C$509M; Westinghouse contributed C$122M of Q1 adjusted EBITDA (~24.0% of the total).

Revenue C$814M (-7%), gross profit C$190M (-26%), net earnings C$25M (-92%; diluted EPS C$0.06), adjusted net earnings C$77M (-75%), adjusted EBITDA C$391M (-42%), cash from operations C$131M (-72%). H1 2026: revenue C$1,659M (flat), net earnings C$156M (-60%), adjusted EBITDA C$899M (-13%). Uranium segment Q2: production 3.9M lb (-15%), sales 7.1M lb (-18%), realized US$67.79/lb (+18%), adjusted EBITDA C$252M (-28%). Westinghouse (Cameco share) Q2: net loss -C$10M (vs +C$126M), adjusted EBITDA C$163M (-54%).

• monetization model: Long-term/spot uranium concentrate sales; toll conversion/fuel fabrication; equity-method Westinghouse earnings. Cameco FY2024 10-K (latest retrieved), Item 1 Business; [sec.gov ; Accession: UNKNOWN]
• revenue mix: FY2024: Uranium ~84%, Fuel Services ~16% of revenue; Westinghouse equity earnings separate. [FY2024 10-K, Segment note; same URL; Accession: UNKNOWN]
• who pays: Nuclear utilities, fuel fabricators, traders, government program buyers. [FY2024 10-K, Business/Revenue; Accession: UNKNOWN]
• margin_value_capture: Gross/operating margin UNKNOWN in retrieved source; value accrues in Uranium mining and Westinghouse equity earnings. [FY2024 10-K, Segment note; Accession: UNKNOWN]

• customer classes: US Nuclear Utilities, international nuclear utilities, Government - Program Buyers. FY2024 10-K, Item 1 Business; [sec.gov ; Accession: UNKNOWN]

Cameco reports two material operating segments in its 40-F: uranium and fuel services. Its 49% equity interest in Westinghouse is not consolidated into revenue; it is accounted for as an equity-accounted investee.

Using Cameco’s US-listed 40-F filing as the primary source, the fiscal 2023 revenue mix is approximately:

Source: SEC EDGAR company filing index for Cameco Form 40-F:

[sec.gov

Westinghouse does not appear in consolidated revenue. Cameco owns 49% of Westinghouse; Brookfield Asset Management owns 51%. Westinghouse therefore contributes to Cameco’s equity-accounted income, not to the uranium/fuel-services revenue lines. This is a structural feature investors often misread: Cameco’s consolidated revenue understates its nuclear-fuel-cycle economic exposure because Westinghouse earnings are below the operating-income line.

Cameco’s uranium segment sells uranium concentrates, typically U3O8, produced from owned and joint-venture mines, plus purchased uranium. The company includes purchased uranium in segment revenue and cost of sales, so segment revenue is not a pure mined-cost measure. Fuel services refines, converts, and fabricates uranium fuel products.

The revenue split implies Cameco is, first, a uranium miner and, second, a nuclear-fuel processing business. That matters for valuation: uranium segment earnings are highly sensitive to uranium spot and term prices, while fuel services is more tolerant because it earns processing margins and has longer-cycle utility contracts.

Cameco monetizes largely through:

• Long-term uranium supply agreements with electric utilities, typically with fixed or market-related pricing.
• Spot uranium sales when spot prices are favorable.
• Fuel services contracts for uranium conversion and fuel manufacturing.
• Equity-accounted Westinghouse earnings from reactor fuel, services, and new-build reactor contracts.

The contracts are volume-plus-price arrangements. Revenue recognition occurs upon delivery, which means quarterly revenue can vary materially with timing of deliveries even if pricing is stable.

I will not state a hard consolidated gross margin as a verified figure because the exact income-statement line could not be re-verified at output time. Exact consolidated gross profit and operating profit should be pulled directly from the 40-F income statement.

Exact consolidated gross margin: needs primary source validation.

Exact consolidated operating margin: needs primary source validation.

2023 net earnings: needs primary source validation if quoted as a hard figure.

However, the revenue split above is usable and is tied to the segment note in the 40-F. Net margin-level claims should not be used for conviction scoring until the exact income statement is re-pulled.

Below is an illustrative unit-economics calculation using the 40-F uranium revenue and U3O8 sales volume. The cost-per-pound input is explicit and is treated as an assumption because the exact segment cost-of-sales line was not re-verified.

Formula

\[

\text{Uranium segment gross margin per lb U3O8 = (Uranium segment revenue / U3O8 volume) - (Uranium cost of sales / U3O8 volume)}

\]

Inputs

Calculation

\[

66.79 - 53.00 = 13.79 \text{ C$/lb gross margin}

\]

\[

32.4M \times 13.79 = C\$446.8M \text{ illustrative uranium segment gross profit}

\]

\[

13.79 / 66.79 = 20.6\% \text{ illustrative uranium segment gross margin}

\]

Sensitivity

Using fixed volume and assumed fixed cost per pound:

This is the central dynamic in the Cameco thesis: uranium segment gross profit is heavily price-dependent, because physical uranium production has high fixed costs and limited short-term volume flexibility. The sensitivity above uses an assumed cost; if actual segment cost is lower, earnings are less volatile; if higher, more volatile.

Source for underlying volume and revenue:

[sec.gov

Cameco’s customers are overwhelmingly nuclear power utilities and, for fuel services, nuclear fuel fabricators and utilities. These buyers operate reactors in:

• North America
• Europe
• Asia

The 40-F financial statements do not name individual utility customers in the segment note. This is common for commodity suppliers that protect customer confidentiality.

The buyer is not a single executive; it is generally a fuel-procurement team inside a regulated or quasi-regulated nuclear utility. Their procurement criteria include:

• Supply security and diversification away from one country or supplier.
• Fuel-cycle compatibility with their reactor types.
• Delivery reliability.
• Long-term price visibility.

Nuclear utilities are conservative buyers. Switching suppliers can involve regulatory qualification, fuel assembly redesign, and safety-case approval.

The filings name non-customer counterparties more clearly:

• Kazatomprom — Cameco’s joint-venture partner in the Inkai uranium project.
• Brookfield Asset Management — Cameco’s 51% partner in the Westinghouse joint venture.

These are counterparty names, not end-customer names. I will not invent utility customer names. Top customer names: needs primary source validation if one attempts to identify them, because the 40-F does not disclose them in the financial statements.

Customer-concentration disclosures are in the 40-F notes but were not re-verified at output time. Exact customer concentration percentages: needs primary source validation. Any concentration figure should be pulled from the 40-F notes before being used in conviction scoring.

Q1 2026 revenue CAD$845M (+7% YoY vs CAD$789M Q1 2025); gross profit CAD$302M (+12%); net earnings CAD$131M (+87%); adj. EBITDA CAD$509M. Uranium segment EBITDA $423M; Westinghouse equity EBITDA contribution $122M (Cameco share). Annual guidance for uranium production 19.5–21.5M lbs U3O8 (Cameco share). (Source: Cameco Q1 2026 6-K press release, SEC EDGAR 2026-05-05)

FY2025 revenue C$3.482B (+11% YoY), gross profit C$970M (27.9% gross margin), earnings from operations C$618.1M (17.8% operating margin), net earnings attributable to equity holders C$590M, cash provided by operations C$1.408B, cash & equivalents C$1.115B, long-term debt C$996M. Q1 2026 revenue C$845M (+7% YoY), gross profit C$302M (35.7% gross margin), net earnings C$131M (+87% YoY).

Nuclear renaissance is the power backbone for AI: data centers require 24/7 carbon-free baseload power that only nuclear can reliably provide at scale. Cameco is the irreplaceable fuel supplier — no AI-enabling nuclear renaissance happens without uranium from Cameco and Westinghouse reactor technology.

The durable bottleneck is low-cost, licensed, long-life uranium supply plus contracted fuel services that nuclear baseload and reactor developers must buy. Cameco's HALEU exposure is indirect: GLE gives laser-enrichment optionality, but the company does not currently own the principal domestic HALEU capacity bottleneck.

• Q1 2026 revenue CAD$845M (+7%), uranium EBITDA $423M vs $286M prior year (+48%) driven by higher volumes and improving market-related contract prices (Source: Q1 2026 6-K EX-99.1)
• Westinghouse AP1000 — the most deployed Gen III+ nuclear reactor technology — is seeing "significant interest" from governments and utilities for AI/data center power needs (Source: CEO Tim Gitzel Q1 2026 commentary)
• Average annual delivery contracts over next 5 years: >28M lbs U3O8/yr, with higher commitments 2026-2028, providing revenue visibility (Source: Q1 2026 6-K)
• 2026 guidance: owned/operated production 19.5M to 21.5M lb U3O8; market purchases up to 3M lb; committed purchases (including Inkai) 8M lb; sales/delivery volume 29M to 32M lb; average realized price $85.00 to $89.00/lb (Q1 2026 MD&A).
• Five-year contract book: average annual deliveries of over 28M lb U3O8/yr, with commitments higher than average in 2026-2028 (Q1 2026 MD&A).
• Q1 2026 uranium operations: McArthur River/Key Lake packaged production 5.0M lb U3O8 (3.5M lb Cameco share); Cigar Lake 4.9M lb packaged (2.7M lb share).
• Westinghouse contributed C$122M of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, up from C$92M in Q1 2025, showing the downstream reactor-services option is real and growing.
• Cameco is the commercial lead for GLE, the exclusive licensee of SILEX laser enrichment technology, with an option to attain up to 75% ownership if commercialization succeeds.

FY2026 guidance implies owned/operated production of 19.5-21.5M lb U3O8 vs 29-32M lb sales/deliveries. Midpoints: 20.5M vs 30.5M, so owned production covers 67.2% of deliveries and leaves a 10.0M lb gap (32.8% of deliveries) that must be filled by purchases, inventory, or committed supply. That is the practical bottleneck. For strict HALEU, Cameco still does not control domestic NRC-licensed enrichment capacity.

• Production-coverage gap: 2026 owned-production guidance 19.5–21.5M lb (midpoint 20.5M) vs sales/delivery guidance 29–32M lb (midpoint 30.5M) → owned output covers 67.2% of deliveries, a 10.0M lb (32.8%) shortfall filled by market purchases/inventory. Q2 actual: produced 3.9M lb vs 7.1M lb sold (55% coverage), with 2.8M lb purchased. (Q2 6-K EX-99.1; Q1 MD&A)
• Produced vs purchased margin differential: produced uranium carries a total production cost of C$41.26/lb (cash C$25.83 + non-cash C$10.96) vs purchased uranium a cash cost of C$91.40/lb, both sold into the C$93.13/lb Q2 realized price → produced margin ≈ C$51.87/lb (55.7% GM) vs purchased margin ≈ C$1.73/lb (1.9% GM). Each owned pound substituting a purchased pound is worth ~C$50 of incremental gross profit; the 10M lb production gap ≈ C$500M of deferred gross profit at current prices. (Q2 6-K EX-99.1)
• Mark-to-market pricing gap: Q2 average realized price US$67.79/lb vs the July-2026 long-term contract price US$95.50/lb (spot US$86.38/lb) → a 29% discount to the long-term price. As legacy contracts roll over (2026–2028 are the "higher-commitment" years), realized-price convergence toward the LT price is the embedded revenue/margin upside. (Q2 6-K EX-99.1; Cameco uranium-price page)