ins+$1.6M(2buy👥)→1.2M · 13F 15+/10-×0.0 · short↑0.27
Current snapshotTTM Technologies Inc.
Industrial Automation · Physical AI
Industrial Automation exposure in Physical AI.
Printed circuit boards (PCBs) for networking, industrial, aerospace, and semiconductor test — JPMorgan AI supply chain report. PCB is the physical substrate for every AI system. Mid-cap.
Catalysts
NVIDIA Rubin platform PCB value +233% per rack — sampling/qualification in H2 2026; Diamond UHDI facility (Syracuse, $130M) ribbon-cutting Jun 2026; Russell 1000 inclusion Jun 26, 2026 bringing passive fund inflows
Invalidation
1) The NVIDIA Rubin PCB-value claim (+233% per rack) depends on TTMI holding the qualification slot - PCB/substrate supply is competitive (Unimicron, Ibiden, AT and S, Zhen Ding) and a slot loss is unrecoverable within a platform generation. 2) The Diamond UHDI facility (Syracuse, $130M) ramps into underutilization if the demand curve slips - capex committed ahead of revenue. 3) UHDI/substrate ASP compression if industry capacity expands into the same AI-PCB demand. 4) Defense/aerospace and semiconductor-test segments (the margin mix) soften. 5) Russell 1000 inclusion was a one-time passive-flow event, not a fundamental driver.
Latest change
· Target moved from $190.96 to $190.39.
Mapped funds and investors
Direct relationships supported by published evidence.
Reported holdings as-of
| Fund / investor | As of | Fund portfolio weight | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPDR S&P Kensho Final Frontiers ETF ROKT | 1.19% | Source |
Disclosed investment history
No sourced relationships mapped yet.
Showing up to four relationships in each group. ETF weights describe the fund’s portfolio, not ownership of this company. Private investment history does not establish current ownership.
Bullish - Seeking Alpha includes $TTMI in Top 10 stocks for H2 2026 due to AI infrastructure and data centers theme. [X/web search Sep 2026]
Lower-confidence snapshotTarget price: $163.64
Dated research targetMoat & position
- Evidence Grade
- Inferred
- Moat Durability
- Qualification barrier
- Toll Road Tier
- Strong proxy
Deep research update
1,482 words · Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 10 sources
TTM Technologies is the largest North American pure-play printed-circuit-board (PCB) fabricator, plus mission systems, RF components, and RF microwave/microelectronic assemblies. It makes the physical interconnect substrate — high-layer-count PCBs, ultra-HDI boards, and IC substrates — that every AI server, defense system, and medical implant is built on (Q2 FY2026 8-K EX-99.1).
- monetization model: One-time hardware/contract manufacturing: custom PCBs, backplanes, RF/microwave components/assemblies; NRE/engineering services; no subscription/SaaS. (TTM 10-K FY2023 Item 1; sec.gov ; accession UNKNOWN)
- revenue mix: Two reportable segments: PCB ~89% and RF&S Components ~11% of net sales (last verifiable FY2023; latest FY not verified here). (TTM 10-K FY2023 segment note; accession UNKNOWN)
- who pays: OEM procurement organizations (aerospace/defense primes, data-center/networking OEMs, auto Tier 1s, medical/industrial OEMs), EMS providers; defense/government funds via primes. (TTM 10-K FY2023 Item 1)
- margin_value_capture: GAAP gross margin ~18–20%, operating margin ~5–7%; value accrues in high-mix, high-reliability aerospace/defense and RF. (TTM 10-K FY2023 MD&A/segment note)
- customer classes: OEM procurement (aerospace/defense primes, data-center/networking OEMs, automotive Tier 1s, medical OEMs, Industrial Automation - OEMs), EMS providers; Government - Program Buyers and Space & ISR Program Buyers via primes. (TTM 10-K FY2023 Item 1; accession UNKNOWN)
TTM does not have a subscription or recurring-software model. It is a manufacturer:
- Customers issue purchase orders and often use annual or multi-year pricing agreements.
- Revenue is recognized when control of goods transfers, typically on shipment or delivery depending on contractual terms.
- Defense and aerospace work may be under U.S. government prime contracts or subcontracts, subject to FAR/DFARS flow-down requirements, progress payments, and compliance audits.
- PCB work is often built to customer specifications, with the customer owning the design. TTM’s value-add is manufacturing process capability, yield, reliability, and qualification.
Pricing is generally negotiated per program or per board design. Raw-material costs, especially copper-clad laminate, prepreg, gold, and specialty chemicals, affect margins. TTM may pass some raw-material volatility through to customers, but this depends on contract terms.
Source: SEC EDGAR TTM 10-K revenue recognition and contracts sections — not retrieved; needs primary source validation.
- Net sales $1,004M, +37% YoY (vs $730.6M Q2 2025) — all-time quarterly record
- GAAP net income $83.0M ($0.77 EPS); non-GAAP net income $106.9M ($0.99 EPS) — record
- Adjusted EBITDA $166.8M (16.6% of sales) vs $109.7M (15.0%) Q2 2025 → +160bps margin expansion
- Cash from operations $96.4M; net leverage 0.9x
- Total book-to-bill 1.49; commercial book-to-bill 1.63
- Data Center & Networking = 40% of sales, +91% YoY; Aerospace & Defense = 37% of sales (+14% YoY), program backlog > $1.7B
- Medical/Industrial/Instrumentation +33% YoY
- FY2025 (10-K): revenue $2,906M, gross profit $601.7M (20.7% GM), operating income $264.7M
- Guidance: Q3 2026 net sales $1.10–1.14B, non-GAAP EPS $1.21–1.27; FY2026 ~$4.4B revenue, non-GAAP EPS approaching $5.00
Printed circuit boards (PCBs) for networking, industrial, aerospace, and semiconductor test — JPMorgan AI supply chain report. PCB is the physical substrate for every AI system. Mid-cap.
NVIDIA Rubin platform PCB value +233% per rack — sampling/qualification in H2 2026; Diamond UHDI facility (Syracuse, $130M) ribbon-cutting Jun 2026; Russell 1000 inclusion Jun 26, 2026 bringing passive fund inflows
- The 78-layer midplane yield/capacity wall: A 78-layer orthogonal backplane needs HDI capability + ultra-low-loss M9-class copper-clad laminate (CCL) + yields high enough to avoid single-source bottlenecking. TTM is one of the two "obvious" qualified fabricators (with Taiwan's Zhen Ding) — but it does not make the substrate material. It buys M9 CCL from a concentrated Japanese/Taiwanese material set (Elite Material, ITEQ, Panasonic). The deepest bottleneck is one layer down.
- DC&N value migration (economic capture): Q2 DC&N revenue ≈ 40% × $1,004M = $401.6M (+91% YoY). Q3 DC&N ≈ 49% × $1,120M midpoint = ~$549M. Management guided ~$600M of N+M asymmetric PCB production in 2H26 (Q2 call).
- Cost-of-moat vs moat-defended (the 9/10/2026 financing): $500M senior notes @ 6.750% due 2034 = $33.75M/yr interest (≈4.6% of ~$730M FY26 adjusted EBITDA), plus $300M incremental TLA + $800M incremental TLB = ~$1.6B total incremental debt to fund Epiq Solutions ($1.1B) + Swiss Technology Group + ILFA + fees. Epiq = $1.1B ÷ 17.4x expected adjusted 2027 EBITDA → ~$63M adjusted 2027 EBITDA (only ~2.6% of TTM's FY26 EBITDA). Net leverage goes 0.9x → 2.3x at close, guided back to 1.5–1.7x within 12–18 months.
- Qualification switching cost: ITAR registration + defense clearance + hyperscaler/ODM qualification cycles (typically 12–18 months) make TTM's A&D and DC&N positions costly to displace. A&D program backlog $1.7B ≈ ~1.15x annualized A&D revenue (~$1.48B).
The scarce asset is qualified, high-layer-count / ultra-HDI PCB fabrication capacity at two structural chokepoints — (a) the AI data-center interconnect layer (40% of sales, +91% YoY, heading to ~49% of Q3 sales), and (b) ITAR/clearance-gated high-reliability interconnect for defense (37% of sales, $1.7B+ backlog). The physical constraint is real: NVIDIA's Kyber rack (Rubin Ultra) reportedly needs a 78-layer PCB midplane to connect 144 GPUs, and SemiAnalysis (2026-07-06) reports it slipped to 2028 on signal-integrity/alignment/manufacturability and low yield — not on chips or interconnects.
qualification barriers (ITAR, defense ATO, hyperscaler/ODM approval), the $130M+ Syracuse "Diamond" ultra-HDI facility, and a $1.2B 2025–2029 DC&N capacity commitment. But it is a fabricator moat (QUALIFICATION_BARRIER), not an IP/patent moat — gross margin is only ~21%, i.e. no premium-pricing power.
2 / 2 / 2 = 6 → STRONG PROXY.
- Bypass (2): qualified alternatives exist (Zhen Ding, Unimicron, Compeq, Gold Circuit), but qualification cycles + scarce domestic A&D capacity are binding — not a clean bypass.
- Concentration (2): TTM is one of several qualified fabricators, not a monopolist; its own customer concentration on hyperscalers is rising (a risk, not pricing power).
- Hyperscaler exposure (2): DC&N is 40% of sales heading to ~49% — directly tied to hyperscaler capex cycles; TTM does not self-supply the substrate.
- product_service: Custom printed circuit boards (PCBs), backplane assemblies, and RF/microwave components and assemblies. (TTM 10-K FY2023 Item 1; accession UNKNOWN)
- technical function: PCBs mechanically support and electrically interconnect components; RF/microwave parts route/filter/amplify high-frequency signals; focus on signal integrity, thermal management. (TTM 10-K FY2023 Item 1)
- why it is hard: High-mix/low-volume, complex multilayer/HDPCB, RF design, AS9100/ITAR and long customer-specific qualifications. (TTM 10-K FY2023 Item 1/Risk Factors)
- substitutes: Other PCB fabricators, EMS in-house PCB, flex/rigid-flex, ceramic substrates, SiP/silicon interposers for some RF. (TTM 10-K FY2023 Competition)
- pricing power: MED — qualified defense/space/RF programs are sticky, but commodity PCB pricing is competitive. (TTM 10-K FY2023 Competition)
TTM likely has more pricing power in defense/aerospace and RF&S than in commodity mobile or consumer PCBs. In qualified defense programs, changing suppliers triggers requalification cost, time, and risk. In commercial high-volume programs, pricing is more competitive and OEMs regularly push for cost reductions.
The stock market narrative often treats TTM as a defense-electronics and advanced-PCB supplier, but its actual mixture includes cyclical commercial exposure. Pricing power should therefore be assessed by segment, not at the company level.
Source: TTM MD&A and segment discussion — not retrieved; needs primary source validation.
# 3. Who they sell to
needs primary source validation
- Substrate not owned — the true bottleneck (M9 CCL) sits with Japanese/Taiwanese material producers (Elite Material, ITEQ, Panasonic); TTM is a buyer, not the toll-road owner.
- Thin margin — ~21% gross margin and ~10.9% GAAP op margin confirm fabricator economics, not monopolist pricing.
- Rising hyperscaler concentration — DC&N growing from 40% to ~49% of sales concentrates TTM's fate in hyperscaler capex (a synchronized-cut risk).
- M&A debt load — $1.6B incremental debt at 6.75% pushes leverage to 2.3x; if AI capex pauses the interest drag ($33.75M/yr on the notes alone) compresses FCF during a capital-intensive cycle.
- Taiwan competition — Zhen Ding/Unimicron/Compeq can also qualify for hyperscaler ultra-HDI, capping TTM's share.
- What % of TTM's DC&N revenue is ultra-HDI/40+-layer vs commodity multilayer, and what is the revenue-per-rack on the Rubin generation? (segment disclosure)
- Does TTM have a path to internalize substrate (CCL) via the STG/ILFA "embedding + electro-optical" capabilities, or does it remain a net buyer of M9 CCL?
- Epiq's $1.1B @ 17.4x 2027 EBITDA — what is the un-synergized multiple, and can the SDR/space-compute line offset the decelerating commodity-PCB mix?
STRENGTHENED (record quarter, +91% DC&N, $1.7B backlog, +160bps margin, strategic "up-the-chain" M&A) — but as a STRONG PROXY (toll-road 6), not a DIRECT BOTTLENECK: the deepest moat (substrate material) is not owned, and the AI tailwind is partly a capacity-cycle story.
Sources
10 sources preserved from the latest qualified research update.
- sec.govTTM Technologies Reports Second Quarter 2026 ResultsOpen source ↗
- sec.govTTM Technologies Enters Agreement to Acquire Epiq SolutionsOpen source ↗
- sec.govsec.govOpen source ↗
- sec.govsec.govOpen source ↗
- sec.govsec.govOpen source ↗
- sec.govsec.govOpen source ↗
- sec.govsec.govOpen source ↗
- sec.govsec.govOpen source ↗
- sec.govsec.govOpen source ↗
- sec.govsec.govOpen source ↗