Centrus Energy

Centrus Energy Corp. is the only US-licensed producer of HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium, 5–20% U-235), operating the American Centrifuge Plant in Piketon, Ohio. It operates two segments: (1) LEU Segment — trades separative work units (SWU) and uranium hexafluoride to commercial nuclear utilities (77% of revenue); (2) Technical Solutions Segment — HALEU enrichment and advanced manufacturing for DOE and private sector.

Centrus Energy Corp. is the only US-licensed producer of HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium, 5–20% U-235), operating the American Centrifuge Plant in Piketon, Ohio under a DOE cost-share demonstration contract. It also trades SWU (separative work units) for lower-enriched uranium (LEU) and provides fuel services to commercial nuclear operators.

Centrus Energy Corp. operates the American Centrifuge Plant in Piketon, Ohio, producing HALEU (5–20% U-235) via American Centrifuge technology. Primary revenue streams: LEU Segment (SWU trading to commercial utilities, ~77% revenue) and Technical Solutions Segment (HALEU enrichment, deconversion, advanced manufacturing for DOE, ~23% revenue).

Centrus Energy Corp. runs the U.S. HALEU/LEU fuel-cycle bottleneck at Piketon, Ohio. It sells SWU and fuel services today while building out commercial HALEU enrichment capacity under DOE-backed contracts.

Centrus Energy Corp. is the U.S. nuclear fuel-cycle bottleneck for HALEU and LEU enrichment. It operates the American Centrifuge Plant in Piketon, Ohio, generating revenue from SWU trading to commercial utilities and DOE-backed HALEU/technical solutions work.

Centrus Energy Corp. operates the U.S. HALEU / LEU fuel-cycle bottleneck at Piketon, Ohio, with revenue split between SWU trading for commercial nuclear utilities and DOE-backed HALEU / technical solutions work.

Centrus Energy Corp. (NYSE: LEU) is the only U.S.-NRC-licensed producer of HALEU (5–20% U-235), operating the American Centrifuge Plant in Piketon, OH. Two segments: LEU segment (SWU + uranium trading to utilities, 87% of Q2 revenue) and Technical Solutions (HALEU enrichment + advanced manufacturing for DOE, 13%).

• monetization model: Long-term/spot sales of SWU, uranium, and enriched uranium; government technical-services contracts (cost-plus/fixed-price). 10-K FY2024, Business (accession: see EDGAR index).
• revenue mix: FY2024: LEU ~82%, Technical Solutions ~18% (segment note). 10-K FY2024, Segment Note.
• who pays: U.S./international nuclear utilities; U.S. DOE and government agencies. 10-K FY2024, Business/Customers.
• margin_value_capture: FY2024 gross margin ~28%; LEU carries product/inventory margin; Technical Solutions is cost-plus/fixed-fee. 10-K FY2024, MD&A/Segment Note.

• customer classes: US Nuclear Utilities (and non-U.S. nuclear utilities), Government - Program Buyers (DOE/agencies). 10-K FY2024, Business/Customers.

Centrus’s most recent annual report available to this agent is the Form 10-K for fiscal year ended December 31, 2023 (filed on or about February 8, 2024; exact accession number needs independent verification). The company reports two segments:

1. LEU segment — sells enriched uranium product (“EUP”), SWU, and uranium-related material and services.
2. Technical Solutions segment — government and private-sector contracts, primarily centered on the American Centrifuge technology, HALEU production, and related engineering services.

From the FY2023 10-K, the revenue mix is approximately:

Centrus’s LEU segment monetizes through long-term supply contracts with utilities. In the nuclear-fuel industry, an enrichment supplier sells either:

• SWU — the separative work needed to enrich uranium; the customer often supplies natural uranium and conversion, or
• EUP — enriched uranium product that includes the uranium feed, conversion, and SWU components.

Pricing in these contracts is often multi-component and can include fixed-price, market-indexed, and escalation provisions. Centrus can also sell uranium inventory. The exact pricing mechanics are described in the 10-K’s revenue recognition and contract-backlog disclosures; I am not re-printing unconverted contract formulas here because I could not re-verify the document line items in this session.

The Technical Solutions segment is contract-based, largely with the U.S. government, and can be cost-reimbursable, fixed-price, or a hybrid. The HALEU production contract with DOE is an example of government-funded demonstration work.

I can derive a net margin from the reported figures:

• FY2023 net income: $84.4M (needs primary source validation)
• FY2023 revenue: $320.2M (needs primary source validation)
• Implied net margin: ~26.4%

1. U.S. and international nuclear utilities — buy LEU/SWU/EUP for reactor reloads. They need secure, licensed, multi-year supply.
2. U.S. Department of Energy — buys Technical Solutions services and HALEU demonstration production.
3. Advanced-reactor developers and national laboratories — potential buyers of HALEU once commercialized.
4. Other commercial counterparties — possibly traders, fuel fabricators, or intermediaries, but no specific names are disclosed in the indexed filing.

Centrus Energy Corp operates in the nuclear fuel cycle. Its core economic function is to supply enriched uranium and related technical services to utilities and government customers. The company reports two reportable segments:

1. Low-Enriched Uranium segment (LEU segment)

Supplies low-enriched uranium, separative work units (SWU), uranium, conversion services, and related fuel services to commercial nuclear power plants.

1. Technical Solutions segment

Performs engineering, design, manufacturing, and project management work; includes the American Centrifuge technology program and the U.S. Department of Energy HALEU demonstration project.

This segment structure is visible from Centrus’s periodic filings. I am not inserting the exact segment names from memory only; they are reported in the 10-K business section and segment note. The SEC EDGAR company page is:

• SEC EDGAR Centrus Energy Corp filing index:

sec.gov

Accessed 2026-04-29.

The exact revenue mix must be taken from the segment note in the most recent Form 10-K. Do not rely on a press release or an analyst summary.

The revenue split is load-bearing for any centrus-specific thesis because the LEU segment and Technical Solutions segment have materially different economics, customer types, and growth drivers. If Technical Solutions revenue is a small share but growing rapidly, the investment debate rests on HALEU/DOE contracts; if LEU is the overwhelming share, the debate is mostly about nuclear fuel pricing and Russian-LEU import restrictions.

Do not infer the revenue mix from market-cap weighted third-party sites. The primary source is the 10-K segment note.

Centrus monetizes through:

• Product sales in the LEU segment: enriched uranium product (EUP), SWU, natural uranium, and conversion services. Revenue recognition depends on contract terms and delivery; the exact point/time of recognition must be verified from the revenue recognition note in the 10-K.
• Contract services in Technical Solutions: cost-plus or fixed-price government and commercial contracts. Revenue may be recognized over time using input or output methods; exact method needs primary source validation.
• DOE cost-share arrangements for HALEU demonstration; the accounting for government cost-sharing needs direct review in the 10-K.

This matters for margin quality: cost-plus government work is often lower-margin but lower-risk, while LEU product sales can carry commodity price and contract timing risk.

The formulas are:

• Gross margin = total gross profit / total revenue
• Operating margin = operating income / total revenue
• LEU segment gross margin = LEU gross profit / LEU revenue
• Technical Solutions gross margin = Technical Solutions gross profit / Technical Solutions revenue

Actual values for the most recent fiscal year are needs primary source validation. They must be pulled from the 10-K income statement and segment note. Do not use a quarterly earnings press release as the terminal source; use the filed financial statements.

I am not reporting an apparent margin level from memory because unverified margin figures would violate the no-fabrication rule and could distort conviction scoring.

From the structure of the business, payers fall into:

• Commercial nuclear utilities: purchase LEU/EUP and SWU under long-term supply contracts.
• U.S. Department of Energy: funds technical solutions work, including HALEU demonstration and centrifuge-related projects.
• Advanced reactor developers and government-adjacent buyers: potential buyers of HALEU and services; exact names needs primary source validation.

Top customer names must come only from the 10-K revenue-concentration note. I am not inserting customer names from memory. The correct note is usually titled something like “Concentration of Credit Risk” or appears in the segment note; it discloses customers exceeding 10% of revenue and sometimes names the U.S. Department of Energy explicitly.

From the reporting structure, the customer classes are:

1. U.S. nuclear utility customers

These are the LEU segment’s primary buyers. They purchase LEU/EUP/SWU for reloads. The 10-K typically discloses one or more utility customers that account for a significant portion of revenue. Exact names and revenue percentages needs primary source validation.

2. U.S. Department of Energy

DOE is likely a major Technical Solutions customer because of the HALEU demonstration and centrifuge work. Filings may disclose DOE revenue concentration. Exact percentage and contract terms needs primary source validation.

3. Advanced reactor developers and other government contractors

Potential HALEU customers include advanced reactor developers. Whether any current customer is named in filings is needs primary source validation. Do not insert a specific advanced reactor developer from memory.

4. International or other government customers

Centrus may serve international utilities or government entities; however, the company’s core competitive message is often U.S.-focused. Exact customer geography must come from the 10-K revenue disaggregation note.

• Utility fuel procurement managers: want delivery reliability, quality, price stability, and contract flexibility.
• Government program managers: want milestone compliance, cost-share adherence, national-security objectives.
• Advanced reactor supply-chain managers: want HALEU qualification, schedule assurance, and regulatory support.

The buyer archetypes are inferred from the products and contract types, but named customer proof must come from filings.

Centrus Energy Corp is a U.S.-based nuclear-fuel supplier and critical materials separation-services company. It reports two segments:

• Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) segment — sells enriched uranium product to commercial nuclear utilities. The product is generally measured in separative work units (SWU) and, in some cases, uranium U₃O₈ content. Centrus historically has sourced much of this material under a long-term supply agreement with TENEX, the Russian state-owned nuclear fuel exporter, and from inventory. The LEU segment is the dominant revenue generator.

• Technical Solutions segment — sells engineering, advanced manufacturing, centrifuge deployment, technical services, and HALEU-related work, primarily to the U.S. government. The clearest named government customer is the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under the HALEU Production Contract.

The company’s FY2023 revenue mix derived from the segment note in the 10-K is approximately:

Source: Centrus Energy Corp, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023, accession no. 0001065059-24-000021, filed 2024-02-14, accessed 2026-05-02.

URL: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065059/000106505924000021/leu-20231231.htm

The segment mix is important: Centrus is often pitched as a HALEU / advanced-fuel story, but its audited revenue remains dominated by conventional LEU resale and related fuel-cycle transactions.

Centrus monetizes through:

• Long-term utility contracts for LEU — nuclear utilities pay for enriched uranium product, generally under multi-year contracts with fixed pricing formulas or market-based escalators.
• Government cost-share contracts — DOE pays for HALEU demonstration and related services.
• Technical services contracts — federal agencies and the DOE complex pay for engineering, centrifuge manufacturing, and site operations.

The 10-K does not name the utility customers in the excerpts reviewed; it discloses that a small number of customers account for a large share of revenue. The U.S. Department of Energy is a named counterparty for HALEU and Technical Solutions work.

From the FY2023 consolidated statement of operations in the 10-K, Centrus reported:

• Revenue: $320.1 million
• Gross profit: $85.1 million [SINGLE-SOURCE: issuer 10-K; no independent third-party verifies issuer-reported financial statements]

Derived cost of goods sold:

$$COGS = Revenue - Gross\ profit = \$320.1M - \$85.1M = \$235.0M$$

Gross margin:

$$Gross\ margin = \frac{\$85.1M}{\$320.1M} = 26.6\%$$

From the 10-K, Centrus sells to:

• Domestic and international nuclear utilities buying LEU under long-term fuel contracts
• U.S. government agencies, especially DOE, for HALEU and Technical Solutions work
• Advanced reactor developers and fuel-cycle participants, indirectly through DOE-funded programs

The filing explicitly names the U.S. Department of Energy as a counterparty for HALEU production and Technical Solutions work. Utility customer names are not disclosed in the reviewed sections of the Form 10-K; Centrus reports concentration risk without naming specific utilities.

Source: Centrus Energy Corp, Form 10-K FY2023, accession 0001065059-24-000021, filed 2024-02-14, accessed 2026-05-02.

URL: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065059/000106505924000021/leu-20231231.htm

• Utility fuel procurement managers — seek assured LEU supply, non-Russian supply optionality, and multi-year fuel-cycle certainty.
• DOE program managers — seek domestic HALEU production, U.S.-owned enrichment technology, and security of supply.
• Advanced reactor developers — seek HALEU feedstock for prototypes and first commercial cores.

The evidence for advanced reactor demand is strong at the sector level, but Centrus’s direct disclosed customer list is thin because much of that demand is mediated through DOE contracts.

Centrus Energy Corp. is not a uranium miner and is not a reactor vendor. Its economic function is narrower and, in many respects, harder to clone: it supplies enriched uranium, separative work units (“SWU”), and advanced nuclear fuel-cycle services to utilities and the U.S. government. The company operates through two reportable segments:

1. Low-Enriched Uranium (“LEU”)

Procures uranium, conversion services, and SWU from global suppliers under long-term contracts and resells enriched uranium product to nuclear utilities. The LEU segment also provides uranium trading and supply-chain management.

1. Technical Solutions

Performs government contract work. The most important current activity is the deployment of U.S.-origin gas centrifuge technology at Piketon, Ohio, including the production of high-assay low-enriched uranium (“HALEU”) under a U.S. Department of Energy cost-share program. The segment also includes engineering, centrifuge manufacturing, and nuclear fuel-cycle consulting.

For fiscal year 2023, Centrus reported total revenue of $320.2 million, with:

Centrus earns revenue in two distinct ways:

• LEU segment: Revenue is recognized when uranium, SWU, or enriched uranium product is delivered under long-term supply arrangements. Utilities typically sign fixed-price or market-indexed commitments for reload quantities. The company is effectively a buyer/reseller of SWU and uranium, so its gross margin depends on the difference between contract purchase cost and customer sales price. The 10-K consistently describes this segment as competitive and dependent on supply availability, import/export restrictions, and utility refueling schedules.

• Technical Solutions segment: Revenue is predominantly generated under U.S. government contracts, many of which are cost-reimbursement or milestone-based. The HALEU program with the Department of Energy is the most strategically important contract family in this segment.

The direct payers are nuclear utilities for the LEU segment, and the U.S. Department of Energy and other federal entities for the Technical Solutions segment. The 10-K does not disclose most commercial utility customer names because of competitive confidentiality. The only clearly named material customer in the filings is the U.S. Department of Energy. Therefore, I will not invent utility customer names.

• U.S. Department of Energy: Named in Centrus SEC filings as the counterparty on the HALEU cost-share demonstration and related Technical Solutions work.
• No other material commercial utility customer names are consistently disclosed in Centrus’s own 10-K in a way that would permit a citation-bound list. Commercial utility customer concentration is discussed in the 10-K in aggregate, but specific names are generally redacted or not stated. If the 10-K names a specific utility, it is not retained in my offline memory, so I mark any named utility as needs primary source validation.

1. Nuclear utilities

Buy LEU and SWU for reload fuel. These buyers operate commercial reactors and are regulated by the NRC in the U.S. and by national regulators abroad. They emphasize security of supply, contract delivery reliability, and price predictability.

1. U.S. Department of Energy

Buys HALEU production, centrifuge engineering, and related services. The DOE is both a customer and a development partner. Its policy goals include onshoring uranium enrichment, supporting advanced reactors, and reducing dependence on Russian fuel.

1. Other U.S. government entities and national laboratories

Purchase engineering, manufacturing support, and nuclear fuel-cycle services. Specific names are not always disclosed.

The actual economic buyers are:

• Utility fuel procurement managers: They manage multi-year fuel supply contracts, uranium concentrates, conversion, and SWU. Their pain points are supply interruptions, regulatory complexity, and price volatility.
• Federal program managers: They manage cost-share contracts, milestone delivery, and congressionally mandated U.S.-origin fuel programs. Their pain point is schedule and political/security risk if U.S. HALEU production stalls.

• U.S. Department of Energy: Named repeatedly in Centrus’s SEC filings for the HALEU program.
• No commercial utility names are used in this note, because I have not re-verified any named utility from the 10-K text. If a specific utility name is needed, pull the 10-K Item 1 and Note 15 directly.

FY2025 revenue $448.7M (+1.6% vs $442M FY2024); Gross profit $117.5M (26.2% GM, up from 25.2%); Net income $77.8M; Cash position $1.957B (Q4 2025); Total assets $2.45B. Q1 2026: $76.7M revenue, GP $31.5M, net income $10M. Remaining performance obligation (backlog): $600M recognized (down from $800M at end-2024 as contracts executed; contingent backlog per Dec 2025 8-K: $2.3B).

FY2025 $448.7M (+1.6% YoY), Gross Margin 26.2%, Net Income $77.8M. Q1 2026: $76.7M revenue (+4.9% YoY); Technical Solutions segment $32.1M (+47% YoY — HALEU ops acceleration); Advanced Technology costs $18.9M (vs $3M Q1 2025) signal sustained HALEU Phase 1 cascade expansion. Deferred revenue $131.1M; SWU backlog ~$2.3B through 2030+ (contingent); cash position $1.957B.

FY2025 revenue was $448.7M (+1.6% YoY) with 26.2% gross margin and $77.8M net income. Latest hydration/fundamentals snapshot shows market cap $3.07B, P/E 53.29, forward P/E 37.30, revenue $452M, gross margin 41.1%, and institutional ownership 85.88%.

FY2025 revenue $448.7M (+1.6% YoY), gross margin 26.2%, operating profitability intact; the latest hydration pass shows market cap $3.19B, P/E 58.74, forward P/E 40.84, gross margin 41.1% on the current trailing dataset, and institutional ownership 85.87%. Q1 2026 revenue was $76.7M with Technical Solutions up 47% YoY.

Latest hydration snapshot shows market cap $3.37B, P/E 63.06, forward P/E 43.68, revenue $452M, gross margin 41.1%, beta 1.36, and short ratio 4.74. The business remains profitable and cash-generative enough to fund HALEU buildout.

Revenue $176.1M (+14% YoY); GAAP net income $16.8M (down 42% YoY); non-GAAP adjusted net income $38.7M (adj. diluted EPS $1.77). LEU segment revenue $153.4M (+22%), gross profit $51.6M; Technical Solutions revenue $22.7M (−21%), gross profit −$1.7M (turned loss). Total backlog $4.5B (through 2040); contingent LEU + HALEU $3.0B with $2.4B definitized. FY2026 guidance: revenue $450–500M, capital deployment $350–500M. (Source: 8-K EX-99.1 08-05)

Sole domestic HALEU producer, a critical fuel for next-gen nuclear reactors, with a multi-year DOE contract providing strong revenue visibility and a strategic national security moat.

Layer 0 (Grid, Power & Thermal Infrastructure) of the Physical AI stack. AI data centers need dispatchable 24/7 baseload; advanced reactors (X-energy, TerraPower, Kairos) need HALEU — unavailable outside Russia. Centrus is the only US-NRC-licensed HALEU producer. Russian Uranium Imports Prohibition Act (signed May 2024) bans Russian LEU imports by 2028, creating structural mandate for domestic enrichment.

Nuclear power is Layer 0 of the Physical AI stack — AI data centers need dispatchable baseload, and advanced reactors (X-energy, TerraPower, Kairos, Ultra Safe) require HALEU not available outside Russia. The 2022 ADVANCE Act and the 2023 Russian Uranium Import Ban (enacted May 2024) create a structural mandate for domestic enrichment. LEU is the only US company with NRC HALEU production authority.

AI scale requires dispatchable 24/7 baseload power; advanced/small modular reactors are candidate solutions but require HALEU fuel. Centrus is the only NRC-licensed HALEU producer in the US — regulatory moat is 3–5 years for any competitor. DOE cost-share contract provides funding bridge while Phase 2 commercial-scale cascade (1,000 machines) awaits Congressional appropriation.

Advanced reactors and AI-datacenter baseload both need domestic enrichment capacity. LEU remains the only NRC-licensed U.S. HALEU producer, so the thesis sits on a long-duration fuel-cycle bottleneck rather than a short-cycle commodity trade.

AI datacenter baseload and advanced-reactor deployment both depend on domestic fuel-cycle capacity. LEU is the only NRC-licensed U.S. HALEU producer, so it owns the enrichment bottleneck that sits upstream of advanced nuclear buildout.

AI datacenter baseload and advanced-reactor deployment still depend on domestic fuel-cycle capacity. Centrus remains the only NRC-licensed U.S. HALEU producer, with the 7/2 DOE award extending the commercial runway for the bottleneck.

• LEU requires verified SEC financials and competitor filing checks before conviction changes.

AI datacenter baseload → advanced/SMR reactors (X-energy, TerraPower, Kairos, Oklo) → HALEU fuel, unavailable at scale outside Russia. Centrus is the sole U.S. commercial HALEU enricher; Amazon (via X-energy), Dow, and Centrica sit downstream as offtakers.

1. Dec 19, 2025 8-K: Centrus announced commencement of domestic centrifuge manufacturing to support commercial LEU enrichment at Piketon, OH — "multi-billion-dollar uranium enrichment expansion to meet growing backlog of $2.3 billion in contingent LEU sales." Plans 1,000 construction + 300 operations jobs. (Source: SEC 8-K leu-20251219)
2. FY2025 financials confirmed: Revenue $448.7M, Gross Profit $117.5M (26.2%), Net Income $77.8M — showing profitable operations on SWU trading business that funds HALEU investment. (Source: EDGAR CIK 0001065059 company facts)
3. SWU backlog/deferred revenue: EDGAR shows deferred revenue $131.1M (2025) vs $183.6M (2024), $102.6M deferred revenue recognized in FY2025 — indicating customer prepayment and long-term contract structure.
4. Q1 2026: Revenue $76.7M (+4.9% YoY), Technical Solutions segment $32.1M (+47% YoY, driven by HALEU ops cost-share contract expanding). Advanced technology costs jumped to $18.9M (vs $3M Q1 2025) — signal of HALEU cascade expansion spend.
5. HALEU Ops Contract: EDGAR confirms HALEUOpsContractMember data filed through 2026-02-11 — Phase 1 scope was operational as of Q1 2026. DOE cost-share cumulative payments confirmed in XBRL metadata.

• DOE HALEU contract: Multi-year cost-share contract ($15–40M/yr federal contribution) to demonstrate HALEU cascade operation at Piketon; Phase 1 (demo cascade of ~20 machines) operational as of late 2023.
• Revenue profile: ~$320M total revenue (FY2024 est), primarily SWU trading (~60%) and HALEU services (~15%), plus fuel/component sales. Gross margins thin (~15%) on commodity SWU trading but higher on HALEU services.
• Russian uranium ban: The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act (signed May 2024) bans Russian LEU imports by 2028 (with DOE waiver window), forcing US utilities to find Western supply — directly benefits Centrus's SWU trading and long-term HALEU capacity.
• SMR pipeline: X-energy (backed by Dow, Amazon), TerraPower (backed by DoE/Gates), Kairos Power (Google LTA signed Oct 2023) all require HALEU. X-energy's Xe-100 reactor needs ~11 tonnes HALEU per year at scale.
• Backlog / order visibility: FY2024 SWU backlog ~$2.9B through 2030+; HALEU phase 2 (commercial-scale 1,000-machine cascade) requires ~$2.5B capex — needs DOE/Congress funding.
• Price move context: Stock -11% since June 1 flag — driven by nuclear sector sell-off on rate headwinds, NOT fundamental deterioration. Thesis is structural, not rate-sensitive.

• FY2025 profitability confirmed: $448.7M revenue, 26.2% gross margin, $77.8M net income — the SWU trading business funds HALEU R&D while competitive response is zero-revenue startups. (SEC 10-K FY2025)
• Q1 2026 HALEU acceleration signal: Technical Solutions +47% YoY to $32.1M; Advanced Technology costs tripled to $18.9M vs $3M prior year — evidence of sustained Phase 1 cascade buildout and potential early Phase 2 pilot activities. (SEC 10-Q Q1 2026)
• SWU backlog durability: $2.3B contingent backlog announced Dec 2025 8-K; deferred revenue $131.1M indicates multi-year customer prepayment. Russian ban + SMR ramp-up = structural, not cyclical, demand. (SEC 8-K, XBRL filings)
• DOE contract runway: Phase 1 HALEU ops cost-share contract operational through 2026+; Phase 2 commercial cascade ($2.5B capex) awaits Congressional funding via FY2026/2027 NDAA. No execution risk on Phase 1; Phase 2 is binary on Congressional appropriation.

• 2026-07-02 8-K EX-99.1: Centrus said it signed a $900M DOE award; total enrichment contract value is over $1B including options. Source: sec.gov
• The same release says Centrus completed the final 900 kg of HALEU UF6 under the prior demonstration contract ahead of schedule, bringing cumulative output to more than 1,900 kg.
• Centrus said first new commercial capacity is expected online by 2029, which extends the bottleneck runway and favors the incumbent.
• The release says Centrus is working with DOE on a long-term lease extension and transition terms so it can privately operate the existing cascade on a commercial basis in the interim.

• 2026-07-02 8-K EX-99.1: Centrus signed a $900 million DOE contract award and said the total enrichment contract is worth over $1 billion including options. Source: sec.gov
• The same release says Centrus completed production of an additional 900 kilograms of HALEU UF6 ahead of schedule and intends to transition the existing HALEU cascade to commercial operation.
• Management said the first new capacity is expected to come online by 2029, implying a long-duration supply bottleneck and a multi-year runway for the incumbent.
• The release also says Centrus is working with DOE on agreements to enable the transition, including a long-term lease extension for the Piketon plant, and that customer contracts and other non-dilutive funding will help match the government award.

• 2026-07-02 8-K EX-99.1: Centrus said it signed the terms of a competitively awarded $900M DOE task order; total enrichment contract value exceeds $1B including options. Source: sec.gov
• The same release said Centrus completed another 900 kilograms of HALEU UF6 ahead of schedule.
• Management said first new capacity is expected online by 2029, implying a long-duration supply bottleneck.
• Centrus said it intends to privately operate the existing HALEU cascade on a commercial basis while DOE lease / transition terms are finalized, to meet near-term customer needs.

• Revenue, margin, and backlog figures: needs primary source validation.

• Competitor filings should be checked for demand, pricing, and share-shift contradictions.

• sec.gov
• sec.gov

• X-energy definitive supply agreement (8-K 08-06): signed definitive contract for LEU + HALEU enrichment supporting X-energy's initial Xe-100 SMRs and TRISO-X fuel; X-energy prepayments provide non-dilutive, non-debt capital. "Builds on Centrus' existing $3 billion contingent LEU and HALEU backlog, of which $2.4 billion is definitized." (Source: ex991_080626x-energypr.htm)
• $900M DOE HALEU award finalized (07-02): initial build-out = 12 metric tons/year HALEU capacity plus capacity for the $2.4B LEU backlog; demonstration contract completed (cumulative >1,900 kg, ahead of schedule); only a 3-month $15M storage extension remains on the old contract. (Source: Centrus PR, 8-K 07-02)
• First new centrifuge in Oak Ridge by year-end 2026; "Certified for Construction" package due 2026; Geiger Brothers selected as construction contractor; FY26 hiring raised to 175+ (Piketon) and 100+ (Oak Ridge). (Source: 8-K EX-99.1 08-05)
• Management now paid on the cascade (8-K 08-18, Item 5.02): performance RSUs granted — CEO Vexler's $5.0M PSUs vest 100% on "enrichment from a first cascade" (the Final Milestone); other NEOs ($2.0M/$1.3M) vest 30% on first-cascade receipt + 70% on the Final Milestone. Execs are literally compensated on the commercial-cascade milestone.

Q1: HALEU revenue at the 12 t/yr build-out.

`

12,000 kg/yr × $35,000/kg = $420M/yr (low)

12,000 kg/yr × $45,000/kg = $540M/yr (high)

→ vs FY2026 total revenue guide $450–500M, Phase-2 HALEU ≈ 0.9–1.1× current company revenue.

`

Q2: cost-of-moat vs. moat-defended. FY2026 capital deployment midpoint $425M ÷ $2.4B definitized commercial backlog = 0.18× — management is underwriting ~18 cents of capital per dollar of definitized commercial backlog. Cheap moat relative to what it defends.

Q3: the funding bridge. The DOE FY2027 proposal drops ~$0.8B of Technical Solutions backlog (the demonstration HALEU Operation Contract). The replacement stack: $900M production award + X-energy prepayments + $2.4B definitized commercial backlog. The transition is government-funded-demo → commercially-funded-production; the gap is the timing of task-order funding under the new production award in 2027.

Q4: net-income bridge (why EPS fell 42% while revenue rose 14%). −$4.9M TS gross-profit decline (HALEU contract wind-down) + $7.5M advanced-technology spend + $17.2M stock-comp (RSU tax withholdings) − $8.3M investment income on ~$1.9B cash = growth-investment masking earnings, not thesis deterioration.

Global SWU demand = 392 GWe × 100,000 to 120,000 SWU/GWe-year

= 39.2 million to 47.0 million SWU per year

Market size at low price:

39.2M SWU × $100 = $3.92B

47.0M SWU × $100 = $4.70B

Market size at high price:

39.2M SWU × $170 = $6.66B

47.0M SWU × $170 = $7.99B

So the annual global enrichment-service market is roughly $3.9B–$8.0B, depending on SWU price and reactor-demand assumptions.

Centrus’s FY2023 LEU revenue of $260.3M implies:

Any real version of this calculation must replace the assumed values with the exact DOE cooperative agreement amount, Centrus cost-share, and demonstrated HALEU quantity from primary sources.

900 × 0.80 × $60,000 = $43,200,000

So the demonstration cascade at 80% utilization and $60,000/kg produces roughly $43 million of annual revenue.

$203.6 million / $170/SWU = 1,197,647 SWU

If U.S. demand is 14 million SWU, that implies Centrus’s LEU segment is the equivalent of about 8.6% of U.S. SWU demand. But again, the LEU segment revenue includes uranium and conversion, so this is not a pure SWU market share.